The Counterpoint report states that devices equipped with eSIM capabilities are expected to reach 2 billion shipments by 2025

Smartphones, enterprise IoT devices, and wearable devices are the main areas of eSIM application explosion. Before 2025, in terms of eSIM form, hardware based eSIM solutions will have the widest application range, followed by integrated eSIM and iSIM solution application rates.

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According to Counterpoint ETO (Emerging Technology Opportunities), the shipment volume of eSIM based devices is expected to reach nearly 2 billion in 2025, compared to 364 million in 2018. The main growth opportunities come from the smartphone and enterprise IoT equipment sectors. After our research, we have found that by 2025, a large portion of devices equipped with eSIM capabilities will still adopt the eUICC scheme, and the number of integrated eSIM schemes installed on SIM cards will significantly increase

When analyzing the demand in the eSIM market, Counterpoint research analyst Satyajit Sinh stated that the growth of eSIM applications will disrupt the entire industry's device activation and management methods. Compared to traditional SIM card solutions, the physical changes brought by eSIM will save device manufacturers a lot of space, while improving security, programmability, and battery life efficiency. For operators, eSIM can greatly reduce the distribution and activation costs of SIM cards, while also having the opportunity to generate higher roaming service revenue. More importantly, eSIM allows consumers and corporate customers to enjoy a complete set of seamless connectivity services, including flexible selection of operators, activation, connection, device management, and other services.

Sinha added, "The current eSIM solutions can exist in various forms, including eSIM solutions installed on hardware chips that comply with GSMA standards and eSIM solutions on private platforms. Currently, most eSIM solutions are deployed using solutions from private platform service providers. However, due to Apple, car networking manufacturers, and eSIM applications in the wearable market, market share is constantly shifting towards GSMA standard eSIM solution applications. Suppliers of such solutions on the market mainly include Infineon, STMicroelectronics, Jinyatuo, Jette, Workz, etc. Private platform eSIM solution service providers mainly include Black Tea Mobile, Truepone, Telna, ARM, and Fruit." Communication.

Figure 1: Percentage growth of global shipments of devices equipped with eSIM capabilities in 2018 vs. 2025

(Source: Counterpoint Research Report - Global eSIM Positioning Tracking and Prediction -2018-2025)

Including all forms of eSIM - hardware form, software/virtual form, and integrated form?

Regarding the penetration application of eSIM, Neil Shah Research Institute stated that automotive and enterprise IoT devices will maintain a high position in the future eSIM application penetration curve. Moreover, in terms of eSIM activation rate, enterprise level IoT devices will be much higher than consumer IoT terminals. The main reason for this phenomenon is the fragmentation of device connection deployment, the continuous shrinking of module space, the increasing security requirements against tampering, and the benefits brought by eSIM: easy access to high-quality cellular networks within optional areas, and the ability to significantly improve actual deployment and continuously reduce maintenance costs.

The application of eSIM on smart phones will become the main driving force for large-scale commercial use of eSIM. The current application results are mainly due to the active deployment of eSIM by mobile phone manufacturers such as Apple and Google. Other connection devices such as mobile hotspot devices, routers, Internet computers, UAVs, and the eSIM application of smart watches will show a higher compound annual growth rate because of the relatively small scope of current applications. However, in terms of shipment volume, smartphones and B2B IoT devices will still rank among the top.

Shah also added that in the past four years, before Apple and Google adopted the GSMA standard eSIM solution, eSIM's early applications on smartphones had always been in the form of private platform software eSIM solutions, with most of them being implemented commercially by Chinese device manufacturers. However, we see that in the next 5 to 6 years, there will be more and more integrated SIM and iUICC packaged in SoCs, continuously applied to different device types, replacing the relatively lower security level software form eSIM solutions. The eUICC solution in the form of hardware chips will be widely used in fields such as smartphones and the Internet of Vehicles. We also believe that iSIM or iUICC will be widely applied in the entire IoT application field.

Figure 2. Annual compound growth rate of global device shipments equipped with eSIM capabilities, 2018-2015 percentage

(Source: Counterpoint Research - Global eSIM Tracking and Forecasting -2014-2025)